Knowing When to Stop,y.2009,no.2,content.true,page.1,css.print/issue.aspx
"... suppose you must decide when to stop and choose between only two slips of paper or two cards. You turn one over, observe a number there and then must judge whether it is larger than the hidden number on the second. The surprising claim, originating with David Blackwell of the University of California, Berkeley, is that you can win at this game more than half the time."

No climate change after all recent years, NOAA’s US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has been “adjusting” its record by replacing real temperatures with data “fabricated” by computer models. The effect of this has been to downgrade earlier temperatures and to exaggerate those from recent decades, to give the impression that the Earth has been warming up much more than is justified by the actual data.

These show that the US has actually been cooling since the Thirties, the hottest decade on record; whereas the latest graph, nearly half of it based on “fabricated” data, shows it to have been warming at a rate equivalent to more than 3 degrees centigrade per century.

It's true. 
Here's the old data with the fabricated data points (

Here's the graph with the actual data (